Forecast paid media in three cases
Use low, base, and high assumptions to plan a budget responsibly.
Model the inputs that move the result
Start with expected spend, cost per eligible visit, visit-to-sale rate, and contribution per sale. At $2,000 spend and $2 per visit, you expect 1,000 visits. At 2% conversion and $80 contribution per sale, the case leaves a $400 loss after ads.
Vary the uncertain inputs deliberately
At 3% conversion, the same spend leaves $400 after ads. At $2.50 per visit and 2% conversion, the loss is $720. Record why each case is plausible, drawing on comparable campaigns or explicit assumptions.
Turn each case into a decision
Set the maximum affordable loss, a review date, and the evidence that would justify scaling. Compare actual results with the assumptions, not just the total. If visits cost more than planned, fix that diagnosis before changing the conversion forecast.
Try a related tool
Divide remaining spend by the days left in a campaign. Adjust the daily figure for changes in expected demand.
