Paid Traffic Forecast

Estimate what a media budget might buy before you launch. The forecast connects cost per eligible visit, visit-to-order conversion, and contribution per order so you can see which assumption most affects the decision.

Build a traffic and order forecast

Choose a consistent visit and order definition

Enter the budget you intend to spend and the cost per visit that meets your chosen criteria. Use the purchase rate from similar visits. Contribution per order should reflect net revenue after expected returns and variable fulfillment costs, before advertising. Keep clicks and loaded visits separate if they differ materially.

Run a base case and a downside case

With $2,000 of media, $2 per eligible visit, a 3% order rate, and $80 contribution per order, the base case gives 1,000 visits, 30 orders, and $400 after ads. If the order rate falls to 2%, the same budget gives 20 orders and a $400 loss. Fractional orders in a forecast represent an expected average.

Turn the forecast into a test

Compare low, base, and high assumptions against your loss limit. Use early data to check visit cost, then wait for orders and returns to mature before recalibrating contribution. If the model assumes the entire budget can spend at one cost, test whether cost rises as delivery expands.

Related article: Forecast paid media in three cases