Choose a metric for first-time customer profitability
Measure acquisition against the value of an actual first order.
Match new customers to orders
Define a new customer by first settled purchase where identity coverage supports it. Separate guests you cannot classify. Include only costs and sales belonging to the same analysis scope.
Calculate contribution after acquisition
If 80 new customers leave $3,200 before marketing and you assign $2,800 in acquisition cost, contribution is $400, or $5 per new customer. Check whether media costs also targeted existing buyers before interpreting the result.
Track later purchases separately
A first-order result answers a short-term question. A retention model can estimate future contribution, but keep realized first-order economics visible for cash and operating decisions.
Try a related tool
Compare revenue per advertising dollar with the return needed to cover ad spend. Enter net revenue and contribution margin before ads.
