Estimate break-even for a free trial campaign
Translate trial volume and retention into an acquisition decision.
Separate trials from paid customers
A campaign spends $1,800 on 120 trials, or $15 per trial. If 30 convert to paid accounts, acquisition cost per paid account is $60. A trial count is useful for volume and cannot substitute for mature paid outcomes.
Compare with realized contribution
If an active month contributes $25, an account needs 2.4 active months on average in the simplified model to recover the $60. Build a cohort view with actual retention and refunds before assuming three billed months for every customer.
Set a practical decision window
Wait for trials and payment delays to mature. Compare early activation as a diagnostic, then verify payment and retention separately. If a longer trial changes cash timing, model that exposure before increasing spend.
Try a related tool
Estimate what you can pay to acquire an order while reserving a desired contribution. Use consistent per-order inputs.
