adsays.
Growth & Conversion

Forecast acquisition costs as a promotion ends

Anticipate how pricing, demand, and campaign mix change after a sale.

Keep separate sale and post-sale assumptions

A campaign pays $25 per acquisition during a sale and $38 in ordinary weeks. If the sale audience and offer differ, the first figure should not set the next budget. Use historical periods with a similar price and delivery promise.

Keep separate sale and post-sale assumptions. Recompute contribution at regular price. Plan the transition before the cutoff.
Key decisions covered in this article.

Recompute contribution at regular price

After a discount ends, per-order contribution can rise even as conversion falls. If contribution rises from $30 to $45 and CPA from $25 to $38, after-ad contribution per order rises from $5 to $7, but total contribution still depends on volume.

Plan the transition before the cutoff

Schedule ad and landing-page updates together. Check any tracked links and the displayed checkout price. Review spend and mature orders after the transition so residual sale demand is not mistaken for ordinary performance.

Try a related tool

Estimate what you can pay to acquire an order while reserving a desired contribution. Use consistent per-order inputs.

Open Target CPA