Promotion Break-Even Calculator

Find the order volume a discount needs to match what you would normally earn. Enter contribution per order before any incremental promotion costs entered separately below.

Calculate the required promotional volume

Build a comparable normal-period baseline

Use a similar period, product mix, and customer population. Estimate net revenue after discounts and returns, then subtract variable costs such as packaging and shipping to get contribution per order. Add incremental media or other costs of running the promotion separately. Avoid counting the same discount or cost twice.

Example: an offer that needs 65 extra orders

At 100 normal orders contributing $30 each, the baseline is $3,000. If promotion orders contribute $20 and the campaign costs an extra $300, you need $3,300 in contribution, or 165 orders. Check whether stock and staffing can support that volume before relying on the model.

Review results after returns settle

Compare actual contribution with the baseline and check whether purchases shifted forward from a later period. If promotional contribution per order is zero or negative, selling more cannot cover a positive baseline and additional costs under this model. Reconsider the offer or define a different objective with its own budget.

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