Affiliate program concentration risk
Estimate what happens when a single partner cuts payout.
The scenario
A publisher earns $4,000 a month; one merchant contributes $2,600 and cuts commission by half.
With traffic and conversion unchanged, monthly revenue falls to $2,700. The cut affects 32.5% of total revenue rather than 50%.
Apply it to your own work
Track revenue by merchant and page. Prepare alternatives that meet the reader's needs, and use downside cases when planning fixed commitments.
What to watch for
Diversifying links on a single page does not necessarily diversify revenue if all the merchants depend on one network.
Map the dependency beyond merchant name
Group revenue by merchant, network, product category, and traffic source. Three merchants may still depend on one network’s reporting or one high-ranking page. Estimate loss if any one dependency stops paying for a month.
Decide what can change without harming readers. Expanding into a genuinely different buyer problem may diversify better than filling the existing page with close substitutes. Keep a dated record of alternatives already vetted for fit.
Try a related tool
Measure earnings per tracked referral click after refunds and reversals. Use counts and commissions from the same cohort.
