Build an affiliate revenue forecast
Model traffic, outbound clicks, conversion, payout, and approval.
The scenario
A guide receives 10,000 visits, sends 8% to a partner, and expects 2% of those clicks to convert at $50 with a 90% approval rate.
The scenario yields 800 clicks, 16 gross actions, and $720 expected approved commission. At 1% partner conversion, it yields $360.
Apply it to your own work
Make low, base, and high cases using your own observations. Start by varying the least certain input and model cash collection separately.
What to watch for
Visits are not clicks and conversions are not approvals. Keep each line visible so a spreadsheet cannot quietly mix those denominators.
Forecast the weakest link first
Write the forecast in separate columns for visits, outbound click rate, partner conversion, payout, and approval. Change one input at a time. Reducing an 8% click rate to 6% reduces the base scenario from 800 to 600 clicks and expected commission from $720 to $540.
Use observed low and high values rather than arbitrary optimism. Link each assumption to a report date and note when a cohort is too recent to settle. Move estimated payment into a separate cash plan.
Try a related tool
Measure earnings per tracked referral click after refunds and reversals. Use counts and commissions from the same cohort.
