Build a payout forecast when merchant terms can change
Treat commission rules as dated assumptions in your budget.
Keep effective dates in the model
Separate clicks or conversions according to when old and new terms apply. If the rule is unclear, confirm whether the relevant date is referral, order, approval, or payment.
Model a concrete downside
If 70 paid orders yield $40 each, the expected total is $2,800. A 25% payout cut reduces it to $2,100 with all other inputs unchanged. Recalculate cash timing separately.
Identify decisions that depend on the forecast
If a production commitment only works at the old rate, change the scope or wait for verified terms. Compare merchant concentration and other dependencies before committing.
Try a related tool
Measure earnings per tracked referral click after refunds and reversals. Use counts and commissions from the same cohort.
