Decide whether an affiliate bonus is actually earned
Forecast a performance bonus without treating it as guaranteed revenue.
Model the threshold exactly
A partner pays $35 per approved sale and a $500 bonus after 50 sales. At 49 sales the payout is $1,715. At 50 it reaches $2,250 if the terms apply.
Check the qualification period
Verify whether the threshold counts completed, approved, or paid orders and whether reversals can remove eligibility. Check which reporting date determines the final count.
Avoid spending against an uncertain bonus
Build a base forecast without the bonus and an upside case with it. A late reversal can make additional traffic uneconomic if your plan depends on crossing the line.
Try a related tool
Measure earnings per tracked referral click after refunds and reversals. Use counts and commissions from the same cohort.
