Forecast commissions when a trial converts later
Account for delays between signup, payment, approval, and cash.
Map the events in order
Track signup, activation, first paid invoice, approval, and payment date. If 100 referrals start a trial and 30 reach a paid month at $40 commission, gross commission is $1,200 before reversals. It is not yet $1,200 in cash.
Give each cohort time to mature
Compare trial cohorts at the same age. A recent cohort with only five paid users can be tracking normally if most trials are still open. Document typical delays and keep provisional and settled figures in separate columns.
Revise forecasts when the offer changes
If the merchant extends the trial, recompute expected cash timing and check whether conversion behavior changed. Retain a downside case for trial users who never pay. Use paid commissions for liquidity decisions, not signups.
Try a related tool
Measure earnings per tracked referral click after refunds and reversals. Use counts and commissions from the same cohort.
